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June, 2008: 1 8 14 22 30
Disclaimer - IMPORTANT - Read this first!
| Investor's Journal is a diary focused strictly on investments and personal finance issues, primarily from a contrarian and retiree point of view. Follow along with an average guy's failures and successes as he learns, by trial and error, the fine art of value investing. |
6/1/08-Since the last entry, our Leapin' Lizards (LL) pick, HHGP, purchased on 5/29/07, has been held over a year. It will be sold at the early market price Monday morning. It will then be removed from the LL open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 5/29/07 to early 6/2/08 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 5/30/08, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), HHGP had been down 40.66% in the past 12(+) months.
My top-ten equities for mention today are: AHL; AXS; FLXS; HCC; IPCR; MIG; MRH; NTRI; ORH; and VR.
The focus this time is on a new Classic Value (CV) selection, Validus Holdings, Ltd. (VR) (recent price $20.92). VR's trailing price to earnings ratio is just 3.67. Its forward P/E is estimated at 4.95. The asset's market-capitalization size is small-cap: $1.55 billion. Validus Holdings, Ltd. has a 3.80% dividend, with a dividend payout ratio of 0.03. The price to sales ratio is 1.34. VR's price to book value is only 0.79. There is positive free cash flow. Return on equity is 25.46%. Debt to equity is 0.18. The current ratio is 1.11. This stock has low price to earnings, low debt, low P/Bk, and a healthy dividend in its favor.
Validus Holdings, Ltd. will be added to our CV tracking portfolio, as well as our own nest egg, at its market price early on Monday, 6/2/08.
Incidentally, I had a very difficult time deciding which of two assets to be the main focus this time. The other one is ORH, and I feel strongly enough about its also having apparent worth at its current price that I intend to purchase shares of this company early tomorrow as well, though, for purposes of the hypothetical portfolio competition, it may only be added if still one of the best assets I can find when the time comes for another CV analysis.
6/8/08-Since the last entry, our Classic Value (CV) pick, WIRE, purchased on 6/5/07, has been held over a year. It will be sold at the early market price Monday morning. It will then be removed from the CV open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 6/5/07 to early 6/9/08 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 6/6/08, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), WIRE had been down 28.42% in the past 12(+) months. (Note please:: Although for purposes of the hypothetical portfolio, a sale of WIRE is due, I shall not be selling this asset in our own nest egg just yet. With its P/E now at about 13 and its P/Bk below average, at about 1.6, it may still have some good price to value potential. So I am willing to hold it up to another year or so to see if the price may rise in that period. The official portfolio stats, however, will, as indicated above, be based on the sale price as of early on 6/9/08.)
Also since the last entry, our Wild Wizards (WW) pick, BMI, purchased on 5/2/08, has been held at least 4 weeks. And it no longer meets our WW buy or hold criteria. So it will be sold at the early market price tomorrow (Monday morning) as well. It will then be removed from the WW open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 5/2/08 to early 6/9/08 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 6/6/08, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), BMI has been down 10.54% since purchase.
My top-ten equities for mention today are: APA; AXYS; BRK/A (BRK/B); CF; GDI; MON; MOS; POT; SOHU; and WDC.
My focus currently is on a new Wild Wizards (WW) selection, Gardner Denver, Inc. (GDI) (recent price $52.93). GDI's trailing price to earnings ratio is 13.42. Its forward P/E is estimated at 13.23. The asset's market-capitalization size is mid-cap: $2.78 billion. Gardner Denver, Inc. has no dividend. The shareholder equity to total assets ratio is 0.61. The price to sales ratio is 1.48. GDI's price to book value is 2.33. Return on equity is 20.05%. Debt to equity is 0.24. The current ratio is 2.24. In the last 52 weeks, GDI has risen 33.66%. In the same period, the S & P 500 Index has fallen 9.75%. This stock has advisory support, low debt, and relative momentum in its favor.
Gardner Denver, Inc. will be added to our WW tracking portfolio as well as our own nest egg at its market price early on Monday, 6/9/08.
Ordinarily I had wanted to pick and purchase one more WW than the number to be sold, up to a portfolio of 25. That was at least the intention when I began the Wild Wizards hypothetical portfolio last fall. However, this time I have only been able find the one asset, GDI, that meets our WW criteria, of low debt plus good momentum and advisory support. Perhaps the number of available candidates has been reduced by the market's being sharply lower last week.
On the plus side, though, to date the WW assets, despite the latest downturn, are trouncing even the performance of CV. Of course, the WW hold period is far shorter than the average for CV and the number of stocks bought, held, and sold in the WW portfolio is also far smaller than for CV. So, we cannot make much yet of the current WW portfolio advantage.
In view of the difficulty with increasing the WW portfolio to the originally set 25-asset target, I have decided instead to simply maintain the portfolio in the 10-15 asset range. When qualifying assets are available, I shall buy one more than the number sold, up to a maximum in the portfolio of 15. Otherwise, I shall assure the minimum level or higher. If I must take an asset that does not quite meet all my WW criteria to assure 10 open position Wild Wizards assets, I shall pick the one or more that at least best approximate those criteria.
6/14/08-Since the last entry, our Leapin' Lizards (LL) pick, NUHC, purchased on 6/12/07, has been held over a year. It will be sold at the early market price Monday morning. It will then be removed from the LL open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 6/12/07 to early 6/16/08 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 6/13/08, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), NUHC had been down 55.86% in the past 12(+) months.
My top-ten equities for mention today are: AHL; MIG; MRH; PLFE; PTP; RMCF; RNR; TRCR; TRH; and TRV.
The focus this time is on a new Classic Value (CV) selection, Meadowbrook Insurance Group, Inc. (MIG) (recent price $6.73). MIG's trailing price to earnings ratio is just 8.38. Its forward P/E is estimated at 6.73. The asset's market-capitalization size is nano-cap: $249.15 million. Meadowbrook Insurance Group, Inc. has a 1.20% dividend, with a dividend payout ratio of 0.03. The price to sales ratio is 0.71. MIG's price to book value is only 0.78. There is positive free cash flow. Return on equity is 10.88%. Debt to equity is 0.18. The current ratio is 1.81. This stock has low price to earnings, low debt, and low P/Bk in its favor. It meets Ben Graham value and safety criteria as a bargain stock.
Meadowbrook Insurance Group, Inc. will be added to our CV tracking portfolio, as well as our own nest egg, at its market price early on Monday, 6/16/08.
6/22/08-Since the last entry, our Classic Value (CV) pick, XL, purchased on 6/19/07, has been held over a year. It will be sold at the early market price Monday morning. It will then be removed from the CV open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 6/19/07 to early 6/23/08 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 6/20/08, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), XL had been down 66.11% in the past 12(+) months.
Also since the last entry, our Wild Wizards (WW) pick, RIMM, purchased on 5/2/08, has been held at least 4 weeks, and it no longer meets our WW buy or hold criteria. So it will be sold at the early market price tomorrow (Monday morning) as well. It will then be removed from the WW open positions portfolio, and its closed position info recorded, based on the 5/2/08 to early 6/23/08 per share performance. Through the close of trading on 6/20/08, after subtracting a commission (while not counting any dividends), RIMM has been up 10.35% since purchase.
My top-ten equities for mention today are: APA; AXYS; CF; GDI; MON; MOS; POT; SCHN; SOHU; and WDC.
My focus currently is on a new Wild Wizards (WW) selection, Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. (SCHN) (recent price $106.24). SCHN's trailing price to earnings ratio is 21.95. Its forward P/E is estimated at 15.46. The asset's market-capitalization size is mid-cap: $2.99 billion. Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. has a 0.10% dividend, with a dividend payout ratio of 0.01. The shareholder equity to total assets ratio is 0.65. The price to sales ratio is 1.08. SCHN's price to book value is 3.75. Return on equity is 18.54%. Debt to equity is 0.24. The current ratio is 3.01. In the last 52 weeks, SCHN has risen 114.02%. In the same period, the S & P 500 Index has fallen 12.29%. This stock has advisory support, low debt, and good momentum in its favor.
Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. will be added to our WW tracking portfolio as well as our own nest egg at its market price early on Monday, 6/23/08.
Since I can find only the one new qualifying WW pick and there is also only one WW ready to be sold, I shall leave the net WW portfolio at ten again this time.
6/30/08-I am sorry to be late with my usual investment entry and recommendations this time, but our computer is being attacked by a major virus infestation, resistant to most all anti-virus measures including those we had in place when the attack occurred. A "system renew" remedy also was not successful, as if the software to support it had as well been infected. When we get online, the (Trojan?) virus often sends us to apparently randomly selected other websites in lieu of the ones we seek. After several days of efforts on our own to fix the problem, we shall now need to get professional assistance.
Meanwhile, I am saving the statistics for the close of trading today, which, happily, I was able to retrieve from the site where we have our open portfolio positions, so the regular quarterly evaluation and comparison may hopefully still be done and then presented here, once we are making more progress to correct our system. Soon after that, I would anticipate resuming the normal stock purchase and sales suggestions. Thanks for your patience!
If, by chance, a reader has recently experienced this type virus and knows the steps needed to correct for it, or where they may be found online (optimistically assuming we are able to access the desired site), that info would be greatly appreciated.
Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement
Neither I nor Investor's Journal will be responsible for losses by anyone who obtained ideas from this site.
This diary is intended for personal interest and general information only. You are advised to do your own research (as well as to consult highly compensated professionals) before spending money on anything.
I know of no reason anyone should take my financial musings seriously. At best I am a dedicated amateur providing a bit of investment-related insight and entertainment, at worst an amusing diversion.
My wife, Fran, and I may at times own shares of some of the assets mentioned here. But neither of us receive any benefit from reference to them, unless you count the mutual misery when we get it wrong, or the opportunity to gloat when we get it right.