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November, 2025: 29
Disclaimer - IMPORTANT - Read this first!
| Investor's Journal is a diary focused strictly on investments and personal finance issues, primarily from a contrarian and retiree point of view. Follow along with an average guy's failures and successes as he learns, by trial and error, the fine art of value investing. |
11/29/25- My wife's and my total liquid assets now stand at $2,440,173, up $24,650 or 1.02% from their level noted on 10/4/25. Our nest egg of all holdings (including real estate) is presently worth $3,000,173, a gain of $181,586 or 6.44% since the end of last year.
While I am not predicting a market crash, I think conditions are consistent with recessions and crashes that have occurred in the past, at times with drops in equities overall of 50, 60, or greater percent. Even if such a dramatic pull-back does not occur, the average P/E ratios are high enough that most investors in U.S. stocks at these levels may not see gains over the long-term or may need to accept average performance of only about 3-5%, including dividends, levels of gain rivaled by the returns that may be expected from lower risk intermediate U.S. bond funds, at least until after a major downturn in our country's common stock market has already occurred.
Nonetheless, for those interested in dollar-cost-averaging their purchases, I still believe that, over the long run, stocks or stock funds are worthwhile. This is a strategy that provides more shares when stock prices are down, fewer when, like now, they are up, so that, taken together, the results are shares bought at lower average prices and so with higher reasonably anticipated returns. This approach also means one need not time the market, attempting which is often misguided and not conducive of successful investing results.
In case one were interested in a dollar-cost-average method, for what it is worth (not that I am at all an expert, so these are simply my own best guesses), these first two are the tickers of stocks and funds that I think, taken as a whole, would create portfolios with strong potential:
First, my top 7: BRK/B, FRFHF, FTEC, GLRE, L, MKL, and WTM;
Second, my next 13: CMCSA, CMRE, DFIV, EFV, FNDF, KELYA, MOAT, MTDR, NEAR, REPX, SCHD, VBR, and VXUS.
In addition, third, I would buy good dividend growth stocks (which ones yet to be determined) bought over time and with their dividend amounts reinvested.
I believe if one starts with a portfolio mix of money market funds, bond funds of gradually increasing duration, and equities, then adds each month or quarter equal amounts to the equity portion while reducing that of the money market funds and bond funds, investment in the above assets will offer not great, from these levels, but good outcomes.
Similarly, if one can take a fixed percentage of one's earnings and invest it monthly or quarterly in securities such as those above, one will likely do well. There is, of course, no guarantee, past results do not indicate future results, and one is well advised to do his or her own research and/or rely on a financial professional before making any purchase of fund or stock shares.
Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement
Neither I nor Investor's Journal will be responsible for losses by anyone who obtained ideas from this site.
This diary is intended for personal interest and general information only. You are advised to do your own research (as well as to consult highly compensated professionals) before spending money on anything.
I know of no reason anyone should take my financial musings seriously. At best I am a dedicated amateur providing a bit of investment-related insight and entertainment, at worst an amusing diversion.
My wife, Fran, and I may at times own shares of some of the assets mentioned here. But neither of us receive any benefit from reference to them, unless you count the mutual misery when we get it wrong, or the opportunity to gloat when we get it right.